Caernarfon Town are well on course to finish in the Cymru Premier top six for the fifth time in six seasons since returning to the top flight in 2018-19.
As things stand, with most of the 12 clubs having four rounds of first phase matches to come, 10 points from their remaining games will absolutely guarantee the Canaries a top-half Championship Conference place at the end of part one.
But they are not likely to need that many.
At present, 37 points is the magic figure with Town on 27 from 18 matches, but that total is likely to change week-to-week, depending on other results.
In the four previous seasons Caernarfon have clinched a top six spot, their points totals have been: 34, 34, 32 and 31.
Last season, 25 points from 18 matches was not enough, leaving the Cofis to compete in the bottom six Play-Off Conference for the first time.
Town currently have 27 points. On three of the previous four occasions they have finished in the top six, less or equal that amount of points after 18 games has been enough for them to go on and reach their goal.
After four league games without a win, Caernarfon breathed new life into their hopes of a place among the elite this time with a 2-1 success at Pontypridd on Saturday.
Sion Bradley’s fantastic winning goal in the 75th minute clinched three vital points for Caernarfon at USW Sports Park.
It was a fifth league goal of the season and sixth in all competitions for Bradley, the league’s Player of the Month for August who is having an amazing campaign in yellow and green (and away colours).
In an exciting first half, Town had the first great effort on goal when Dion Donohue picked out Zack Clarke, whose powerful shot on the turn was brilliantly saved by George Ratcliffe.
At the other end, Owain Jones struck a lovely dipping volley which 16-year-old keeper Hari Thomas did well to tip over the bar.
There was danger for Caernarfon when Clayton Green released Ben Ahmun, who rounded the outcoming Thomas, was forced wide and rolled the ball across the six-yard box where Donohue made a timely clearance.
Town responded when Ben Maher’s precision pass released Darren Thomas, who got past keeper Ratcliffe, but his shot was brilliantly cleared off the line by defender Ben Margetson-Williams.
Just before the break, Ponty took the lead when Ahmun’s cross found Jones in too much space from the away team’s point of view, and the former Aberystwyth Town front man volleyed home with ease.
Ahmun should have made it 2-0 after the break, but ballooned over when well placed from a Joe Hunt delivery into the box.
Caernarfon levelled on the hour when referee Nick Pratt pointed to the spot after Thomas was bundled over by Kieran Lewis while attempting to play a one-two with Gruff John.
Clarke’s penalty went in off the post.
A great move from the visitors almost brought a second, but Louis Lloyd shot straight at the keeper after Clarke set him up.
Fifteen minutes from the end came the decider.
Bradley received the ball on the left, cut inside and struck a beautiful shot into the right-corner beyond the diving Ratcliffe.
Young Thomas saved his side late on when he was going the wrong way to reach a Corey Shepherd shot, but stuck out a leg and averted the danger.
After 18 games – 26 points
End of first phase (22 GAMES) – 34 points
Top six? – YES
After 18 games – 33 points
End of first phase – 34 points
Top six? YES
After 18 games – 23 points
End of first phase – 32 points
Top six? – YES
After 18 games – 27 points
End of first phase – 31 points
Top six? – YES
After 18 games – 22 points
End of first phase – 25 points
Top six? – NO
After 18 games – 27 points
To play: Dec 16 – Haverfordwest County (h); Dec 26 – TNS (a); Dec 31 – Colwyn Bay (h); Jan 13 – Cardiff Met (a)
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